I. Field of the Invention
The present invention relates to weather forecasting. More particularly, the present invention is directed to a method of calculating and displaying (1) when precipitation will begin at a particular location; (2) when precipitation will end at a particular location; (3) the type of precipitation (rain, snow or sleet) that will fall at a particular location; and (4) the estimated amount of precipitation that will fall at a particular location. The particular location can be a point or any specifically defined area within a broader geographic area.
II. Description of the Related Art
For centuries efforts have been made to make both short term and long term weather forecasts. Given the complexity of weather systems and the numerous variables that exist, accurate, precise and reliable weather forecasting is a goal difficult to achieve on a consistent basis. Most weather forecasts are broad and general in nature. Such forecasts cover broad geographic areas rather than specific locations. Such forecasts also tend to be non-specific as to time. Such forecasts sometimes are imprecise as to the nature of precipitation that might fall. Such forecasts also typically give broad ranges related to the quantity of precipitation to fall rather than a predicted measurement. Prior art forecasting techniques have simply been unable to account for the myriad of factors to a sufficient degree to provide more specific forecasting either with respect to the time or location where particular specific weather phenomena will occur.
There has been one general exception to this rule in recent years. Since the late 1980's and early 1990's computers, in combination with weather radar, have been used to track storm cells and predict their movement over short periods of time, e.g. where the centroid of the storm will be in 15–30 minutes. Weather radar scans have been successfully used to identify the centroid of a highly developed storm cell, monitor the speed and direction of movement of the storm cell's centroid over time, and then extrapolate from the location, speed and direction data where the storm will be in the near term. Currently, the NEXRAD system creates and distributes a combined attribute table for storm cells detected by radar. A separate table is distributed for each radar. The table includes information related to the location of the cell and its speed and direction. This data can be used to calculate the arrival time of the cell at a particular location.
The techniques currently used to track storms will not, however, successfully predict the start and end times of precipitation at a particular location for a variety of reasons. First, storm tracking algorithms depend on the identification of a storm cell. Precipitation can begin well before and end well after the primary storm cell passes over a location. Further, storm tracking techniques simply will not work with less developed, weaker areas of precipitation not classified as storms by the NEXRAD algorithms. These areas of precipitation include lighter showers and areas of general rain, sleet or snow. These non-storm events have a substantial impact on business commerce. Movement of these areas of precipitation is also affected materially by a larger number of variables than intense storms. Also, the algorithms used to track storms do not provide information such as location-based start times, end times, and quantity.
Traditional color weather radar displays have been commonplace for decades. They are now readily available from private weather vendors, the National Weather Service and other third party data distributors. Since weather radar updates are available from the National Weather Service NEXRAD sites across the United States as frequently as every 5 minutes, users typically have the ability to display the current radar image as well as images from the past hour which gives the user some concept of the overall movement of a precipitation area.
While comparing radar scans over a period of time might provide a general idea of the direction the precipitation area is moving from, there is no information provided as to how fast the areas of precipitation are moving. As such, users have only been able to crudely estimate or calculate these factors related to precipitation. Additionally, due to the complex meteorological factors inherent in predicting precipitation patterns, there is no guarantee that an area of precipitation will continue to move in the same direction in the future that it has been moving in the past. Too many environmental conditions affect such movement.
Prior art methods exist that attempt to provide an arrival time of a precipitation area, but these methods all depend on a basic measurement of how far an area of precipitation has moved in a previous given amount of time and then extrapolating this out into the future, assuming nothing is going to change. Such methods include the use of a crudely made scale-out of paper representing a ruler, writing on a screen with grease pencil, or using other various inaccurate methods such as using a mouse to draw on the screen with the length of the line representing a distance, then extrapolating this out into the future with little, if any, true accuracy, and certainly no scientific basis. Given the crudeness inherent in such prior art techniques, predictions made using such techniques can result in huge errors for obvious reasons. Without true knowledge of how the atmosphere is affecting the precipitation area, any estimates are crude at best and will yield varying results. Such crude extrapolations will also result in rapidly increasing errors as predictions are made as to what will happen further out in time. Prior art techniques simply cannot be used to accurately predict what will be occurring one or more hours into the future.
Still other complicating factors exist in trying to employ such prior art tracking methods. Radars often falsely detect precipitation or other anomalous propagations. These false echoes may be interpreted as real by the novice thereby causing calculations to be performed on precipitation that is not real.
Heretofore, efforts to estimate the amount of precipitation that is going to fall with any accuracy at a particular location has proven to be even more difficult, if not impossible. While the NEXRAD radar system provides the ability to indicate how much rain has fallen in the past hour or past three hours at a location, such products really provide no predictive capability in attempting to estimate how much rain will fall in a given area when the precipitation moves over that area. Too many factors affecting movement of weather patterns exist to provide an accurate prediction.
Weather conditions can have a significant impact on many businesses and on the economy as a whole. While it is not possible to control the weather, many businesses could take advantage of accurate, location-based weather forecasts by scheduling business activities around weather events. Many businesses would benefit from the ability to predict the start time of precipitation, the end time of precipitation, and the quantity of precipitation more accurately. For example, golf courses can provide patrons with an end time of the rain allowing golfers to wait out the storm vs. leaving the course, thereby maximizing profitability of the operation. Similarly, construction companies having an accurate prediction of when rain, sleet or snow would be occurring at a particular jobsite could schedule the pouring of concrete or other construction activities affected by weather accordingly. These are just two examples of how an accurate prediction of the start and stop times of precipitation and the quantity of precipitation at a particular geographic location could be highly beneficial.
In view of the foregoing, there is a real need for a system that is capable of accurately predicting the start and stop times of precipitation. It is, therefore, an object of the present invention to provide a method for making such an accurate prediction.
A further object of this invention is to provide a method and system for accurately predicting the quantity of precipitation at a particular location.
Still another object of the invention is to provide a system by which start time, stop time and quantity of precipitation can be delivered in a useful and timely fashion.
A further object of the invention is to provide a system that provides information related to the nature of the precipitation, i.e. rain, sleet or snow.